Risk Tier
High
TUL to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
21.3%
Historical Cancellation
17.3%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
220
Weighted Risk Score
0.698
Volatility Index
19.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 26 | 10 | 38.5% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 25 | 5 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 220 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 17.3%. The volatility profile (19.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 21.3%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)