Risk Tier
High
EWR to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.8%
Historical Cancellation
15.1%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
1,262
Weighted Risk Score
0.815
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 216 | 18 | 8.3% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 104 | 10 | 9.6% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 90 | 13 | 14.4% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 180 | 37 | 20.6% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 68 | 11 | 16.2% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 178 | 39 | 21.9% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 62 | 6 | 9.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 240 | 44 | 18.3% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 58 | 5 | 8.6% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 1,262 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.1%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)