Risk Tier
High
PVD to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.8%
Historical Cancellation
15.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
798
Weighted Risk Score
0.797
Volatility Index
7.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 167 | 18 | 10.8% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 145 | 26 | 17.9% | n/a | 3 |
| March | 63 | 8 | 12.7% | n/a | 3 |
| April | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 54 | 6 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 58 | 17 | 29.3% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 182 | 39 | 21.4% | n/a | 4 |
| August | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 52 | 5 | 9.6% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 798 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.8%. The volatility profile (7.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- BUF to DCA (16.8% cancel)