Risk Tier
High
CHS to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.4%
Historical Cancellation
16.4%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
653
Weighted Risk Score
0.812
Volatility Index
6.9%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 157 | 30 | 19.1% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 152 | 26 | 17.1% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 53 | 5 | 9.4% | n/a | 2 |
| April | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 44 | 5 | 11.4% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 118 | 21 | 17.8% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 43 | 5 | 11.6% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 653 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.4%. The volatility profile (6.9%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.4%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)
- BUF to DCA (16.8% cancel)