Risk Tier
High
SAV to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
21.3%
Historical Cancellation
17.3%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
8/12
Operations Volume
398
Weighted Risk Score
0.734
Volatility Index
6.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 89 | 20 | 22.5% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 82 | 14 | 17.1% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 57 | 10 | 17.5% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 48 | 5 | 10.4% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 8 distinct months, with 398 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 17.3%. The volatility profile (6.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 21.3%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)