Risk Tier
High
RDU to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
18.3%
Historical Cancellation
14.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
779
Weighted Risk Score
0.706
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 143 | 18 | 12.6% | n/a | 4 |
| February | 186 | 23 | 12.4% | n/a | 4 |
| March | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 90 | 17 | 18.9% | n/a | 3 |
| July | 115 | 29 | 25.2% | n/a | 4 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 102 | 9 | 8.8% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 779 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 14.5%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 18.3%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)