Risk Tier
High
BUF to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.8%
Historical Cancellation
16.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
447
Weighted Risk Score
0.774
Volatility Index
8.3%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 114 | 15 | 13.2% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 80 | 18 | 22.5% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 78 | 11 | 14.1% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 57 | 16 | 28.1% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 447 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.8%. The volatility profile (8.3%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)