Risk Tier
High
MSY to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
21.1%
Historical Cancellation
17.1%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
7/12
Operations Volume
397
Weighted Risk Score
0.697
Volatility Index
14.2%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 171 | 27 | 15.8% | n/a | 4 |
| February | 80 | 17 | 21.2% | n/a | 3 |
| March | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 84 | 14 | 16.7% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 16 | 1 | 6.2% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 7 distinct months, with 397 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 17.1%. The volatility profile (14.2%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 21.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)