Risk Tier
High
ICT to DFW Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
16.5%
Historical Cancellation
12.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
825
Weighted Risk Score
0.683
Volatility Index
4.8%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 87 | 14 | 16.1% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 88 | 12 | 13.6% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 88 | 12 | 13.6% | n/a | 2 |
| April | 87 | 10 | 11.5% | n/a | 3 |
| May | 111 | 12 | 10.8% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 128 | 18 | 14.1% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 81 | 8 | 9.9% | n/a | 3 |
| September | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 25 | 2 | 8.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 825 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 12.8%. The volatility profile (4.8%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 16.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)