Risk Tier
High
DCA to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.1%
Historical Cancellation
15.1%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
1,414
Weighted Risk Score
0.821
Volatility Index
6.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 244 | 22 | 9.0% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 128 | 17 | 13.3% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 69 | 6 | 8.7% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 60 | 7 | 11.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 133 | 36 | 27.1% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 96 | 11 | 11.5% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 204 | 47 | 23.0% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 109 | 10 | 9.2% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 60 | 4 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 215 | 44 | 20.5% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 78 | 6 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 1,414 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.1%. The volatility profile (6.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)