Risk Tier
High
CAE to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.8%
Historical Cancellation
16.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
428
Weighted Risk Score
0.745
Volatility Index
6.5%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 87 | 13 | 14.9% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 64 | 5 | 7.8% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 84 | 19 | 22.6% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 428 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.8%. The volatility profile (6.5%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)