Risk Tier
High
BOS to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
16.5%
Historical Cancellation
12.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
1,770
Weighted Risk Score
0.676
Volatility Index
7.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 331 | 47 | 14.2% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 282 | 29 | 10.3% | n/a | 3 |
| April | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 193 | 22 | 11.4% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 393 | 75 | 19.1% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 90 | 8 | 8.9% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 174 | 14 | 8.0% | n/a | 3 |
| November | 98 | 10 | 10.2% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 126 | 9 | 7.1% | n/a | 3 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 1,770 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 12.5%. The volatility profile (7.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 16.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)