Risk Tier
High
AVL to DCA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
22.0%
Historical Cancellation
18.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
244
Weighted Risk Score
0.740
Volatility Index
9.8%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 28 | 3 | 10.7% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 244 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 18.0%. The volatility profile (9.8%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 22.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- CHS to DCA (16.4% cancel)
- CLE to DCA (16.7% cancel)
- PVD to DCA (15.8% cancel)