Risk Tier
High
EWR to GSP Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
21.4%
Historical Cancellation
17.4%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
224
Weighted Risk Score
0.733
Volatility Index
13.4%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 25 | 2 | 8.0% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 59 | 10 | 16.9% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 224 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 17.4%. The volatility profile (13.4%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 21.4%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to PIT (15.0% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)