Risk Tier
High
EWR to PIT Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.0%
Historical Cancellation
15.0%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
772
Weighted Risk Score
0.758
Volatility Index
7.9%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 40 | 4 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 89 | 12 | 13.5% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 75 | 26 | 34.7% | n/a | 3 |
| June | 63 | 9 | 14.3% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 129 | 24 | 18.6% | n/a | 3 |
| August | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 38 | 3 | 7.9% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 3 |
| November | 169 | 23 | 13.6% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 91 | 6 | 6.6% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 772 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.0%. The volatility profile (7.9%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.0%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- EWR to STL (18.8% cancel)
- EWR to DCA (15.1% cancel)
- EWR to SYR (16.7% cancel)
- EWR to ORF (16.7% cancel)