Risk Tier
High
DCA to ROC Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
20.5%
Historical Cancellation
16.5%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
364
Weighted Risk Score
0.715
Volatility Index
6.4%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | n/a | 2 |
| February | 62 | 14 | 22.6% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 54 | 6 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 56 | 13 | 23.2% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 30 | 3 | 10.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 364 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 16.5%. The volatility profile (6.4%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 20.5%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)