Risk Tier
High
DCA to BNA Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.6%
Historical Cancellation
15.6%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
821
Weighted Risk Score
0.734
Volatility Index
8.3%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 261 | 35 | 13.4% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 101 | 24 | 23.8% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | n/a | 2 |
| April | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 80 | 8 | 10.0% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | n/a | 4 |
| July | 234 | 37 | 15.8% | n/a | 4 |
| August | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 821 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.6%. The volatility profile (8.3%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.6%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to SYR (17.1% cancel)