Risk Tier
High
DCA to MCI Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.1%
Historical Cancellation
15.3%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
9/12
Operations Volume
399
Weighted Risk Score
0.670
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 108 | 14 | 13.0% | n/a | 3 |
| February | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 69 | 10 | 14.5% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 65 | 11 | 16.9% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 49 | 11 | 22.4% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 9 distinct months, with 399 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.3%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.1%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)