Risk Tier
High
DCA to JFK Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
17.7%
Historical Cancellation
13.7%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
813
Weighted Risk Score
0.694
Volatility Index
6.2%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 125 | 13 | 10.4% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 83 | 10 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
| March | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 37 | 3 | 8.1% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 85 | 21 | 24.7% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 155 | 36 | 23.2% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 62 | 4 | 6.5% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 30 | 3 | 10.0% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 68 | 6 | 8.8% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 107 | 10 | 9.3% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 813 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 13.7%. The volatility profile (6.2%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 17.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)