Risk Tier
High
DCA to AGS Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
23.8%
Historical Cancellation
19.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
6/12
Operations Volume
167
Weighted Risk Score
0.674
Volatility Index
7.6%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | n/a | 1 |
| May | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | n/a | 1 |
| November | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | n/a | 1 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 6 distinct months, with 167 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 19.8%. The volatility profile (7.6%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 23.8%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- DCA to CLE (16.2% cancel)
- DCA to CAE (16.6% cancel)
- DCA to BNA (15.6% cancel)