Risk Tier
High
PIT to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
17.7%
Historical Cancellation
13.9%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
11/12
Operations Volume
633
Weighted Risk Score
0.692
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 56 | 4 | 7.1% | n/a | 3 |
| March | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 64 | 7 | 10.9% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | n/a | 2 |
| July | 113 | 20 | 17.7% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 55 | 5 | 9.1% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | n/a | 3 |
| November | 119 | 21 | 17.6% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 53 | 4 | 7.5% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 11 distinct months, with 633 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 13.9%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 17.7%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)