Risk Tier
High
CMH to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
19.3%
Historical Cancellation
15.3%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
10/12
Operations Volume
399
Weighted Risk Score
0.697
Volatility Index
9.0%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | n/a | 1 |
| June | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 90 | 13 | 14.4% | n/a | 1 |
| August | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | n/a | 2 |
| September | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | n/a | 1 |
| October | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 82 | 11 | 13.4% | n/a | 1 |
| December | 34 | 2 | 5.9% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 10 distinct months, with 399 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 15.3%. The volatility profile (9.0%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 19.3%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)