Risk Tier
High
BOS to EWR Cancellation Risk
Route-level historical disruption profile using normalized BTS route data and monthly behavior.
Tier-Adjusted Risk
16.6%
Historical Cancellation
12.8%
Historical Delay (15m+)
n/a
Recurrence Frequency
12/12
Operations Volume
1,009
Weighted Risk Score
0.690
Volatility Index
5.1%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Operations | Cancels | Cancellation % | Delay % | Recurrence Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 26 | 2 | 7.7% | n/a | 1 |
| February | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | n/a | 2 |
| March | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | n/a | 1 |
| April | 67 | 6 | 9.0% | n/a | 2 |
| May | 131 | 22 | 16.8% | n/a | 2 |
| June | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | n/a | 1 |
| July | 218 | 34 | 15.6% | n/a | 2 |
| August | 45 | 3 | 6.7% | n/a | 1 |
| September | 75 | 7 | 9.3% | n/a | 2 |
| October | 95 | 9 | 9.5% | n/a | 2 |
| November | 208 | 30 | 14.4% | n/a | 2 |
| December | 54 | 5 | 9.3% | n/a | 2 |
Analytical Context
Historical disruption is high; strong buffer and protection options are advisable. This route appears in the elevated-risk subset across 12 distinct months, with 1,009 observed operations and a weighted cancellation rate of 12.8%. The volatility profile (5.1%) indicates how unevenly cancellations cluster month to month rather than assuming a flat yearly average. Tier model v1 computes an adjusted route risk of 16.6%. Use this as route context, not deterministic prediction.
Related Routes
- DCA to EWR (15.1% cancel)
- IND to EWR (15.8% cancel)
- ORF to EWR (15.9% cancel)
- CVG to EWR (15.0% cancel)